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Комитов Б, Кафтан В.И. Долгопериодическая солнечная активность в связи с 24-м солнечным циклом / Komitov B., Kaftan V.I. The long term solar activity regarding to 24th Zurich cycle

Комитов Борис / BorisP. Komitov

 Доктор наук по физике, старший научный сотрудник Института астрономии Национальной астрономической обсерватории “Рожен” Болгарской академии наук / PhD of physics, Associate Professor of Institute of Astronomy and National Astronomical Observatory, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences.  e-mail: jornal@geo-science.ru

Кафтан В.И. / KaftanV.I.

 Доктор технических наук, главный научный сотрудник Геофизического центра РАН / Doctor of Tech.Sci., main research worker of Geophysical Center, Russian Academy of Sciences.  e-mail: kaftan@geod.ru

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 Аннотация. В статье дается оценка состояния солнечной активности на основе анализа временных рядов различных характеристик. Наиболее продолжительные временные ряды представлены наблюдательными данными о полярных сияниях, видимых невооруженным глазом солнечных пятнах, землетрясениях, экстремальных метеорологических событиях, толщине годовых колец деревьев, содержании радиоактивных изотопов в кольцах деревьев, спелеологических объектах, кораллах, континентальных ледниках, океанических осадках и др. В рядах выделены главные колебательные компоненты с периодами близкими к 100, 200, 350 и 1100 годам. Продемонстрирована и обоснована возможность наступления вторичного долгопериодического минимума солнечной активности в текущем столетии. Это ожидается за счет суперпозиции сверхвековых колебательных компонент, а также амплитудной модуляции околодвухсотлетнего цикла со стороны квази- двухтысячелетного (2200-2400 лет) солнечного цикла Халщадтцайта. Сделано обоснованное предположение о вовлечении современной солнечной активности в начальную фазу долгопериодического солнечного минимума, глубочайшая фаза которого ожидается во второй половине текущего столетия. Умеренные амплитуды предыдущего и текущего солнечных циклов также свидетельствуют о начале долгопериодической тенденции понижения солнечной активности.

 Ключевые слова: солнечная активность, солнечный минимум, солнечный цикл.

 Abstract. In this paper an estimation of the present solar activity state on the base of time series analysis of different parameters is given. The longest presented there time series are data for auroras, naked eye visible sunspots, earthquakes, extremely meteorological events, annual tree ring widths, radioactive isotopes contents in tree rings, speleological objects, corals, continental ices, oceanic sediments etc. The main oscillations with periods close to 100, 200, 350 and 1100 years has been established in these series. The possibility of secondary long term solar activity minimum during the current century is demonstrated and proved. The last one is expected on the base of superposition of supercenturial oscillation components as well as due to amplitude modulation of ~200 yr cycle by the quasi- bimillenial (2200-2400 yr) solar Hallstadtzeit cycle. An substantiated suggestion about involvement of the current solar activity in the starting phase of a long periodic solar minimum, which deepest phase should be expected during the second half of the present century, is made. The moderate amplitudes of the previous and present solar cycles are also an indication for the beginning of long periodic solar activity decreasing.

 Keywords: Solar activity, solar minimum, solar cycle

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(с) Komitov B, Kaftan V.I., 2011